The Dog’s Bollocks

Truth is like a dog’s bollocks – pretty obvious if you care to look.

The Narrowing becomes The Turning

SpoonerWith the election only a week away it would seem that Kevin07 is galloping confidently down the home straight as Team Howard struggles up the rear. Rudd’s campaign launch had the confidence of one who is to become the next Prime Minister. Rudd’s more modest and carefully targeted education funding promises were also strategically clever for wedging Howard as being fiscally reckless with his non-means tested tax cuts for private schooling.

Howard’s response to Rudd’s campaign launch was symptomatic of Team Howard’s failure to get their narrative across – probably because it is incoherent and lacking credibility. Although we have spent more than Labor our promises are fiscally responsible and non-inflationary while Labor’s spending will simply cause inflation and interest rates to go up. Labor has no policies for growth whereas our policy for growth is Work Choices to keep wages low so you can afford to pay your mortgage.

Polling taken after Team Howard’s campaign launch shows another 1-2 point narrowing in their favour. If this trend continues, the Coalition will have an election winning lead sometime toward the end of next year.

Yesterday’s scathing report by the Auditor General on Team Howard’s blatant misuse of the regional partnerships funding program before the 2004 election to favour marginal Coalition seats and discriminate against Labor held seats could not have come at a worse time for Team Howard’s reputation as responsible economic managers. Combined with a successful campaign launch by Kevin07 it is likely that crucial polling this weekend will show a terminal shift away from the government.

Barnaby Joyce and Andrew Bolt admitting this week that Team Howard is done for will make for an interesting final week of the campaign. The pressure will be on Team Howard to resist pre-election recriminations and blunders while the Mainstream Commentariat begin rewriting the narrative of Team Howard’s fall from grace and how they saw it coming a long time ago.

Some months back at GrodsCorp I predicted a Labor win by a margin of 25-30 seats. Using Antony Green’s calculator I’m now going for around 96 seats to Labor – a margin of 44 seats. A margin of around 53 seats is my instinct, but I guess we must be cautious.

Apparently Labor has been running an effective TV ad this week with a working family saying sorry Johnny, it’s not personal – just time for a fresh team. However, as some of my coarser  musical colleagues would put it, “It’s nothing personal Johnny – it’s just that you’re a pack of feckin conts.”

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Filed under: Federal Election 2007, Politics

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The Dog’s Bollocks

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The Dog's Bollocks: "Bollocks" is one of my favourite words, and this is now one of my favourite blogs and I've only been reading it for five minutes. – John Surname

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