The next federal election looks like being decided on the issues of Work Choices, climate change and the economy. Underpinning each issue is the question of balance and effective policy. Howard seems to have to little to offer in any of these areas, other than more of the same.
Work Choices has skewed the balance entirely in favour of employers and hence the ire of the business lobby now that the ALP has announced a thumbnail sketch of the its IR policy. That the mining sector is still in dialog with the ALP suggests that Rudd may yet come up with a negotiated settlement with them. The mining industry clearly prefer Howard’s Work Choices, yet in understands that it may have to deal with a Labor Government, and so would be keen to extract some kind of agreement for special consideration. Rudd has room to move on this, whereas Howard is locked in. A compromise may well decide the matter in the ALP’s favour.
On climate change, the government is seen as being too skeptical to come up with any serious policy to address the issue. Australian economists such as Saul Eslake are concerned that substantial policy is required, as in the long term there will be a cost to not dealing with climate change. A coherent policy response is more likely from the ALP than the government, so the ALP may well have the advantage on this issue as well.
The government has one last chance with the budget to convince voters that they should be re-elected, that they have the best policies to take the country forward. Unless they can claw back more than a couple of percent in the polls, Howard’s goose may well be cooked.
On most other issues – education, health, child-care, Iraq – Howard is already behind the eight ball. All that remains is fear-mongering about Muslims and asylum seekers. Or a well-time terrorist attack, now that we have 500 homegrown Al Qaeda supporters.
Filed under: Politics
